How to Bet on NFL: Spreads, Totals, Teasers and Key Numbers

Learning how to bet on NFL games starts with three markets: the point spread, the moneyline and the total. Almost everything else on a sportsbook's NFL page, from teasers to player props, is built on one of them. This guide explains each with real numbers, shows why 3 and 7 are the margins that matter most in American football, and covers teasers, props and futures.

One thing first: sports betting is legal only in some US states, and only sportsbooks licensed by that state can take your bets there. If you are reading from outside the US, the same principle applies: check your local law and use a licensed operator.

Where NFL betting is legal in the US

Since the US Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on state-sanctioned sports betting in 2018, each state decides for itself. Some allow both online and retail betting, some allow retail only, and some allow none. The map keeps changing, so the reliable source is your state's gaming regulator, which publishes the list of licensed operators.

The minimum age is 21 in most states that allow sports betting and 18 in a few. Licensed apps verify your identity and use geolocation to confirm you are physically inside a state where they hold a licence each time you bet. Offshore sites that accept US customers without a state licence sit outside that system, which means no state regulator to turn to if a withdrawal is refused or a bet is settled wrongly.

Point spread, moneyline and totals

The point spread

The spread is the default NFL bet. The sportsbook gives the favourite a handicap so that both sides attract action. With a home favourite at -6.5 and the visitor at +6.5, the favourite has to win by 7 or more for a bet on it to win. The underdog covers if it wins outright or loses by 6 or fewer.

Both sides are typically priced at -110. That means you stake $110 to win $100, or $55 to win $50. To break even at -110 you need to win 110 / 210 = 52.38% of your bets, and the two sides together imply 104.76%, which is the book's margin. When the spread is a whole number, such as -7, a seven-point win is a push and your stake comes back. Our guide to point spread and handicap betting goes further into how lines are set.

The moneyline

The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. In the same game, the favourite might be -280 and the underdog +230. At -280 you stake $280 to win $100, an implied probability of 280 / 380 = 73.7%. At +230 a $100 stake wins $230 and returns $330 in total, an implied probability of 100 / 330 = 30.3%. The two add up to 104.0%.

NFL regular-season games can end in a tie after overtime. It is rare, but on a two-way moneyline a tie is usually settled as a push. Playoff games continue until there is a winner. See moneyline bets explained for how two-way and three-way markets differ.

Totals (over/under)

The total is the combined score of both teams, including overtime. With a line of 44.5, a 24-20 final adds up to 44 and the under wins; a 27-20 final makes 47 and the over wins. Wind is the weather factor bettors watch most closely, since strong gusts make long passes and field goals harder, and totals often move when the forecast changes during the week.

Why 3 and 7 are the key numbers

NFL scoring comes in chunks. A field goal is worth 3 points and a touchdown with the extra point is worth 7, so final margins cluster on those numbers. Over many seasons, 3 has been the most common margin of victory and 7 the next most common. Margins such as 10 and 14 also come up more often than their neighbours, but 3 and 7 carry the most weight.

That makes half a point around those numbers worth far more than half a point anywhere else. Consider a favourite that wins by exactly 3:

• At -2.5, the favourite covers and the bet wins
• At -3, the result is a push and the stake is returned
• At -3.5, the favourite fails to cover and the bet loses

Many sportsbooks let you buy half a point for a worse price. Suppose a book offers -3 at -110 or -2.5 at -125 (an example, not a quoted price). At -125 your break-even rate rises from 52.4% to 125 / 225 = 55.6%. Buying off 3 can be worth it when the extra half point turns enough pushes and losses into wins to cover that 3.2 percentage point jump; buying from -6 to -5.5, where nothing sits on the number you are crossing, rarely is.

Books also shade the price rather than the line. A favourite at -3 -120 tells you the market wants to move toward -3.5 but does not want to leave 3.

Teasers: moving the line in your favour

A teaser is a parlay in which you move the spread or total on every leg by a set number of points, usually 6 in football, in exchange for a much lower payout. A two-team, six-point teaser might take a -7.5 favourite down to -1.5 and a +1.5 underdog up to +7.5. Both legs now cross 3 and 7, which is where the extra points do the most good.

Pricing varies by sportsbook, so assume -120 for a two-team, six-point teaser. You stake $120 to win $100, and the break-even rate is 120 / 220 = 54.5%. Because both legs must win, each leg needs to win about 73.9% of the time, since 0.739 × 0.739 = 0.546. Compare that with a standard two-leg parlay at -110 each, which pays roughly +264: $100 returns (21/11) × (21/11) × $100 = $364.46, since -110 is 21/11 in decimal terms.

Teasing a line that does not cross 3 or 7, or teasing a total, buys six points of margins that rarely decide games, and the lower payout then works against you. House rules on pushes also differ: on some books a pushed leg drops the teaser down a level, on others it counts as a loss. Read them first, and see how parlays and accas work for why the margin compounds across legs.

Player props and game props

Props are bets on events within a game rather than its result. Player props include a quarterback's passing yards (over/under 245.5, for example), a receiver's receptions or receiving yards, a running back's rushing yards and the anytime touchdown scorer market. Game props cover things like the first team to score or whether there will be a successful two-point conversion.

A player at +150 to score an anytime touchdown implies 100 / 250 = 40%. A $20 stake wins $30 and returns $50. If the player does not take part in the game, prop bets are usually void, but some books settle them differently, so check before betting early in the week.

Props tend to carry a bigger margin than the main lines, and sportsbooks often set lower limits on them. Same game parlays combine several props or lines from one match; the book adjusts the price for correlation, so the payout is usually smaller than multiplying the legs would suggest.

Futures: Super Bowl, divisions and win totals

Futures are bets settled at the end of the season or the playoffs: Super Bowl winner, conference and division winners, regular-season win totals and awards such as MVP. A team at +1200 to win the Super Bowl implies 100 / 1300 = 7.7%. A $25 stake wins $300 and returns $325.

Two things work against futures bettors. The margin is larger than on single games, since the implied probabilities across a full futures market often add up to well over 100%. And your money is locked up for months, during which injuries and trades can change everything. Win totals, such as over or under 9.5 regular-season wins, are the futures market where your own analysis has the most to work with, because each team is priced on its own schedule and roster.

Before you place an NFL bet

A bet only makes sense if you rate the chance higher than the price implies. If you estimate a side covers 55% of the time at -110, the expected profit per $100 staked is 0.55 × $90.91 minus 0.45 × $100, which is $50.00 minus $45.00, or $5. Small edges like that are easy to overestimate, so read our value betting guide before trusting your numbers.

A short checklist for each bet:

• Confirm you are in a state where betting is legal and the sportsbook is licensed there
• Note whether the line sits on or near 3 or 7, and compare it across books
• Check injury reports, especially at quarterback, before kick-off
• Read the house rules on ties, pushes in teasers and inactive players
• Stake a fixed share of a set budget and never raise stakes to win back losses

If betting starts to feel like a way to make money you need, stop and read our responsible gambling page, or call 1-800-GAMBLER.