Futures Betting Explained: Outrights, Win Totals and Awards

A futures bet is settled weeks or months after you place it: who wins the Super Bowl, how many games a team wins in the regular season, who takes the MVP award. In the UK the same bets are called outright or ante-post bets, and they cover the Premier League title, the top goalscorer and big races such as the Grand National.

Futures can pay long odds for a modest stake, which is why they are popular. They also carry wider margins than single games and tie your money up for a long time. This guide explains the main types, shows how to measure the margin on a futures board and remove it, and covers the settlement rules that decide what happens when a player is injured or a season is cut short.

The main types of futures bets

Most sportsbooks group futures into five families:

• Outrights: the champion of a league or tournament, such as the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, World Series or Premier League.
• Conference, division and group winners, plus markets such as to make or miss the playoffs, top four and relegation.
• Season win totals: an over/under on regular-season wins, for example over or under 9.5 wins for an NFL team.
• Awards: MVP, Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year and similar honours, usually decided by a vote.
• Player season stats: the league leader in passing yards, home runs or goals, or an over/under on one player's total.

Books usually open the next season's markets soon after the last one ends and keep them open until settlement, with prices moving after injuries, trades and results. Our sport guides cover the futures specific to each league, including the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB.

Futures are usually quoted in American odds in the US and fractional odds in the UK. A team at +500 returns $600 from a $100 stake, a $500 profit. The same price is 5/1 in fractional odds and 6.00 in decimal. Our guide to how betting odds work covers the conversions.

Each price implies a probability. For positive American odds, divide 100 by the odds plus 100: +500 gives 100 / 600 = 16.7%, and +2000 gives 100 / 2100 = 4.8%. These figures include the bookmaker's margin, so the chance the book really gives the team is a little lower than the raw number.

Reading futures odds and the margin built into them

Add up the implied probabilities of every selection in a market and the total shows the bookmaker's margin, also called the overround. A game line at -110 on both sides totals 104.8%. Futures boards usually come out much higher.

Take an illustrative four-team division priced like this:

• Team A +150: 40.0%
• Team B +200: 33.3%
• Team C +300: 25.0%
• Team D +500: 16.7%

The total is 115%, so 15 points of margin are built into the board. Leagues with 30 or more teams spread the margin over many more prices, and the total often climbs higher still. Long shots usually carry more of the margin than favourites, because bettors like backing them and books shade those prices accordingly.

To strip out the margin, divide each implied probability by the total. Team A's 40% becomes 40 / 1.15 = 34.8%, a fair price of about +188 against the +150 on offer. This simple method spreads the margin evenly, so treat the result as an estimate. Our guide to implied probability explains the no-vig price in more detail.

Season win totals

Win totals are a two-way market, so their margin is close to that of a single game. A typical line is over 9.5 wins at -110 and under 9.5 at -110 for an NFL team. Books often move the price rather than the line, so you may see over 9.5 at -130 and under 9.5 at +110 instead.

They are also the futures market where your own work counts most. Each team is priced on its schedule, roster and coaching, and you can check every one of those yourself. A tough division, a quarterback injured in pre-season or a change of coach can all leave a total out of date.

Read the settlement rule before you bet. Many sportsbooks require a team to play a set number of games for a win total to have action, and the number differs between books. If a season is shortened, bets may be voided or settled on the games played.

Awards and player futures

Award markets such as MVP are decided by voters, not by a stat line, so the result depends partly on the story of the season. Prices swing on a single game, and a player who misses time with an injury can drop out of contention fast. Bets on an injured player normally stand, so a candidate who misses the second half of the season is simply a losing bet.

Stat-leader markets, such as most passing yards or most home runs, have a different trap: ties. If two players finish level, most books apply dead heat rules and pay a share of the stake at full odds. Our golf betting guide works through a dead heat calculation that uses the same method.

The cost of waiting: money tied up for months

A futures bet placed in September for a February final keeps that stake out of use for five months. If you work to a fixed bank, that money cannot be used on anything else, and the longer the wait, the more you need from the price. Our guide to bankroll management explains how to size bets so a few long-dated stakes do not take over your bank.

Timing also changes the price. Early prices carry more uncertainty and can be generous on teams the market has misjudged, and poor on teams popular with the public. If the price shortens after you bet, the market has moved your way, which is a good sign about your read; the guide to line movement and closing line value explains why. A late price, taken after injuries and results are known, carries less uncertainty and pays less.

Hedging a futures bet that has gone well

Futures are the classic case for hedging. Say you placed $50 on a team at +1200 before the season and they have reached the final. Your bet returns $650 if they win. If the opponent is priced at +110, a $300 bet on the opponent returns $630 if they win, and either result leaves you with a profit:

• Your team wins: $650 returned, $350 staked in total, $300 profit.
• The opponent wins: $630 returned, $350 staked in total, $280 profit.

You give up the chance of the full $600 profit in exchange for a sure $280 to $300. Whether that is worth it is a decision about risk, not about beating the market. Our guide to hedging and cash out shows how to work out the hedge stake and how to compare it with a cash out offer.

Outright and ante-post bets in the UK

UK bookmakers use the terms outright and ante-post for the same idea. Football outrights include the Premier League winner, top four, relegation and top goalscorer; our Premier League betting guide covers those markets and how they settle.

In horse racing, ante-post means betting before the final field is declared. The traditional rule is all in, run or not: if your horse does not run, the bet loses. Some bookmakers offer non-runner no bet on big races, which refunds the stake, so check the terms. Outrights in golf and racing are often bet each-way, so a £10 each-way bet, £20 in total, also pays if the selection finishes in the places. Our guide to each-way bets explains the place terms.

Keeping a record of long-dated bets

Futures are easy to forget about once they are placed, which makes them hard to judge later. Note the price, the date and the stake of each one, and the price the market closed at if you can find it. Over a few seasons that record tells you whether your futures beat the closing price, which is a better test than whether one long shot came in. Our guide to value betting explains how to compare your price with a fair one.

Treat a long-odds futures bet as a long shot, not a plan, and do not add to it to make up for a poor season. The responsible gambling page lists tools for setting deposit and time limits.