Moneyline Bets Explained: Match Winner Odds and Draws

The moneyline is the simplest bet in sport. You pick who wins. There is no points spread, no handicap and no total to worry about. In the US it is called the moneyline, in the UK and most of the world it appears as Match Winner, Match Result, Match Odds or 1X2, depending on the sport and the sportsbook.

Simple does not mean obvious, though. The price on a favourite can make a likely winner a poor bet, a draw can quietly lose a bet you thought was safe, and two markets with almost the same name can settle in different ways. This guide covers how moneyline prices pay, how two-way and three-way markets differ, and how each major sport handles draws and ties.

How a moneyline bet works

A moneyline price is shown in American odds in the US and in decimal or fractional odds elsewhere. The favourite carries a minus sign and the underdog a plus sign.

Take an NBA game with the home team at -180 and the visitors at +155. Those prices are made up for this example, but they are typical of a clear favourite.

• At -180 you stake $180 to win $100. A $90 bet wins $50 and returns $140.
• At +155 a $100 bet wins $155. A $50 bet wins $77.50 and returns $127.50.
• In decimal odds the same prices are 1.56 and 2.55. A £10 bet returns £15.56 on the favourite and £25.50 on the underdog.

The bet is settled on the final result as the sportsbook defines it. In basketball and American football that normally includes overtime. In other sports it may not, which is where most moneyline confusion starts. If you need a refresher on reading the plus and minus signs, see our guide on how betting odds work.

Favourites, underdogs and break-even rates

Every moneyline price implies a win rate you need to break even. For a minus price, divide the number by the number plus 100. For a plus price, divide 100 by the number plus 100.

In the NBA example, -180 implies 180 / 280 = 64.3%, and +155 implies 100 / 255 = 39.2%. Together they add up to 103.5%. The extra 3.5% is the bookmaker's margin. Strip it out proportionally and the market's "fair" view is about 62.1% for the favourite and 37.9% for the underdog.

This changes how you should think about favourites. Backing the -180 side is only a good bet if you think that team wins more than 64.3% of the time. A favourite that wins most of its games can still be a losing bet at the wrong price. The reverse applies to underdogs. A +155 shot that you rate at 42% is a better proposition than a -180 favourite you rate at 63%, even though the favourite will win far more often.

Beginners tend to do the opposite: back short favourites because they win often, then wonder why a winning record still loses money. A 70% strike rate at an average price of 1.40 (-250) still loses about 2% of turnover, because 1.40 implies 71.4%. Win rate means nothing without the price attached to it.

Two-way and three-way moneylines

A two-way moneyline has two outcomes: one side or the other. Tennis, basketball, baseball and most US markets work this way. A three-way market adds the draw as a separate outcome, and you win only if your exact result happens.

Football (soccer) is the standard three-way sport. The market is labelled 1X2 or Match Result, where 1 is the home win, X the draw and 2 the away win. Imagine a match priced at Home 2.40, Draw 3.30, Away 3.00. A £10 bet on the home side returns £24 if they win. If the game is drawn, the bet loses, just as it would if the away side won.

The implied probabilities here are 41.7%, 30.3% and 33.3%, which total 105.3%. Three-way markets usually carry a bit more margin than two-way ones, simply because there are more outcomes to price.

US sportsbooks sometimes list football matches as a three-way moneyline and, separately, a two-way line where a draw returns your stake. Those are different bets with different prices, so look at the market name and the settlement rules before you confirm.

Draw no bet and double chance

If you like a team but fear the draw, there are two common ways to cover it.

Draw no bet removes the draw. If your team wins you are paid, if the game is drawn your stake comes back, and if your team loses the bet loses. You pay for that safety with a shorter price. Using the prices above, a fair draw no bet price on the home side works out at about 2.40 x (3.30 minus 1) / 3.30 = 1.67. You can build that yourself by splitting a stake: put £6.97 on the home win at 2.40 and £3.03 on the draw at 3.30. A draw returns £10.00, your full stake, and a home win returns £16.73. A sportsbook's own draw no bet price is often a touch lower, because it adds its own margin.

Double chance goes further and covers two of the three outcomes, such as home or draw (1X). From the same 1X2 prices the combined chance is 41.7% + 30.3% = 72.0%, which is fair odds of about 1.39 before any extra margin. The price is short because you lose only if the away side wins.

Neither market is better in itself. They are the same opinion priced differently. Our guide on how to bet on football covers both alongside the other football markets.

How draws and ties are settled in each sport

The rules below are common practice, but sportsbooks write their own, so always check the house rules for the specific market.

• Football: the 1X2 market is settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the market says so, as with "To Qualify" or "To Lift the Trophy".
• Ice hockey: the NHL moneyline usually includes overtime and the shootout, so there is always a winner. A separate "60 minute" or "Regulation Time" market is three-way, and a tie after 60 minutes beats both team bets.
• American football: ties are rare in the NFL but possible. On a two-way moneyline a tie is usually graded as a push and stakes are returned.
• Boxing and MMA: many books offer the draw as a third outcome at long odds, and a draw then loses both fighter bets. Others offer a two-way line where a draw is a push. Our boxing betting guide covers this in detail.
• Cricket: Test matches have a three-way market including the draw. In limited-overs games, check whether a tie is settled by the super over or treated as a dead heat.
• Tennis: there are no draws, but a player retiring mid-match triggers its own rules, which vary by bookmaker.

The pattern is simple. If the draw is listed as an outcome, betting on either side loses when it happens. If the draw is not listed, a tie is usually a push, unless the rules say extra time or a tiebreak decides it.

Moneyline or point spread

In American sports the moneyline sits beside the point spread. The spread gives the underdog a head start, so both sides are priced close to -110. The moneyline has no head start, so the prices move apart instead.

The moneyline makes most sense in low-scoring sports such as baseball and hockey, where the margin of victory is usually small and the spread adds little. In high-scoring sports such as basketball, a heavy favourite on the moneyline can be priced so short that the spread is the more practical way to back them. Neither option is better by default; they are two ways of pricing the same game. Our guide to point spread and handicap betting explains the spread side in full.

Whichever you use, small price differences add up. Backing a side at -110 needs a 52.4% win rate to break even. At -105 the figure drops to 51.2%. Comparing the same moneyline at more than one licensed sportsbook is one of the few edges every bettor can take for free. Moneylines are also the most common legs in a parlay, which carries its own maths, covered in parlays and accumulators explained.

Before you place a moneyline bet

Use this short routine on any match winner bet:

• Confirm whether the market is two-way or three-way, and how a draw or tie is settled.
• Check what period the bet covers: regulation time, overtime included, or the full match.
• Convert the price to an implied probability and compare it with your own estimate.
• Look at the same price at more than one licensed sportsbook.
• Set the stake before you look at what the underdog would pay.

A worked example: an NHL home team is priced at -130 and the visitors at +110 on the moneyline, which includes overtime and the shootout. The implied chances are 130 / 230 = 56.5% and 100 / 210 = 47.6%, a total of 104.1%. You rate the home side at 60%. A $100 bet at -130 wins $76.92. Over many such bets, 60% of the time you win $76.92 and 40% of the time you lose $100. That averages 46.15 minus 40 = $6.15 per bet on your numbers. Whether that edge is real depends entirely on whether your 60% is right, which is why estimating your own price matters more than any single tip. Our value betting guide goes into that in more depth.

Betting laws differ by country and, in places such as the US and India, by state, so check the rules where you live and only use licensed operators. Keep stakes to money you can afford to lose, and use the tools on our responsible gambling page if betting stops being fun.