How to Bet on Football: Markets, Asian Lines and Acca Pitfalls

Football (soccer) is a huge betting sport, and a single top-flight match can carry hundreds of markets. Most of them are variations on a handful of ideas: who wins, how many goals, by how much, and what else happens on the pitch. Learn those properly and the long list of options on a match page stops looking intimidating.

This guide goes through the main football markets as bookmakers label them, with the arithmetic for each, then looks at Asian lines, cards and corners, and the accumulator, which is where many beginners lose most of their money. One settlement rule applies to almost everything below: football markets are settled on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs do not count unless the market says so, such as 'To Qualify' or 'To Lift the Trophy'.

1X2: the three-way match result

The basic football market is the match result, written as 1X2: 1 is a home win, X is the draw, 2 is an away win. Because the draw is a real outcome, this is a three-way market, unlike the two-way moneyline common in US sports.

Take a match priced Home 2.10, Draw 3.40, Away 3.60. In fractional odds that is 11/10, 12/5 and 13/5, and in American odds +110, +240 and +260. A £10 bet on the home side returns £21. Convert each price to implied probability by dividing 1 by the decimal odds: 47.6%, 29.4% and 27.8%. Those add up to 104.8%, and the extra 4.8% is the bookmaker's margin. Every market on the page carries a margin like this, which is why you should know roughly what yours is before betting. Our guide to how betting odds work covers the conversions in more detail.

The draw is the outcome beginners underrate. It rarely looks likely before kick-off, yet draws are common in football, and a team you expect to win comfortably can easily be held.

Double chance and draw no bet

Both of these markets reduce the risk of the 1X2 by doing something with the draw, and both pay less as a result.

Double chance covers two of the three outcomes in one bet: 1X (home or draw), X2 (draw or away) or 12 (either team wins). Using the prices above, a bookmaker might offer 1X at around 1.24. A £10 bet returns £12.40 if the home side wins or draws and loses only if the away side wins.

Draw no bet removes the draw altogether. You back one team, and if the match is drawn your stake is returned. Say home draw no bet is 1.52. £10 returns £15.20 on a home win, £10 back on a draw, and nothing on an away win. Draw no bet is the same thing as an Asian handicap of 0, which is covered below.

Goals markets: over/under and both teams to score

Over/under goals markets ask whether the total number of goals in the match will be above or below a line. The most popular line is 2.5: over 2.5 needs three or more goals, under 2.5 wins with two or fewer. The half goal means there is no push. Lines of 0.5, 1.5, 3.5 and higher are offered too, along with team totals and first-half totals.

Both teams to score, shortened to BTTS, is settled yes if each side scores at least once. A 2-1 result is yes. A 1-0 or a 0-0 is no, and so is a 4-0. Own goals count for the team that is credited with the goal, so a defender's own goal counts as a goal for the opposition.

Goals markets are where research on playing style pays off. A side that presses high and concedes chances on the break will produce different numbers from a team that sits deep and plays for set pieces. Expected goals (xG), a measure of the quality of chances created and conceded, is widely published and gives a better guide to a team's attacking and defensive level than the raw scoreline of the last few matches.

Asian handicaps and Asian goal lines

Asian handicaps remove the draw by giving one team a head start, measured in goals. They come in three types of line, and the difference between them matters. The general theory is set out in point spread and handicap betting. Here is how each type works in football.

• Half lines such as -0.5 or +1.5 have two outcomes only. Home -0.5 is simply a home win.
• Whole lines such as -1 can push. Home -1 wins if the home side wins by two or more, is refunded if they win by exactly one, and loses otherwise.
• Quarter lines such as -0.25 or -0.75 split your stake in half across the two nearest lines.

Quarter lines worked out

Say you stake £20 on the home side -0.25 at 1.90. Half goes on 0 and half on -0.5. If the home side wins, both halves win and you get £38 back. If the match is drawn, the £10 on 0 is refunded and the £10 on -0.5 loses, so you get £10 back. If the away side wins, you lose the full £20.

Now £20 on the home side -0.75 at 1.90. Half goes on -0.5 and half on -1. If the home side wins by one goal, the -0.5 half wins and returns £19, and the -1 half pushes and returns £10, for £29 in total. If they win by two or more, both halves win and you get £38. Anything else loses the whole stake.

Asian goal lines

The same system applies to totals. Over 2.25 goals at 1.95 with a £20 stake puts £10 on over 2 and £10 on over 2.5. If exactly two goals are scored, the over 2 half is refunded and the over 2.5 half loses, so you get £10 back. Three or more goals and both halves win, returning £39. Fewer than two and you lose £20. Because the prices sit close to evens on both sides, Asian lines make it easy to compare margins between bookmakers, which is one reason experienced bettors like them.

Cards and corners

Booking markets are often priced in points rather than cards. A common scheme gives 10 points for a yellow card and 25 for a red, with a cap per player, but the scoring and the treatment of a second yellow vary between bookmakers. Most booking markets count only cards shown to players on the pitch, not to substitutes on the bench or to managers, though this also varies. Cards depend heavily on the referee and the type of match: local derbies and games with something at stake tend to be scrappier than end-of-season fixtures with nothing riding on them.

Corner markets include total corners, team corners, corner handicaps and first corner. A corner is generally counted only if it is taken, so a corner awarded as the half-time whistle blows usually does not count. Teams that attack down the flanks and cross a lot tend to win more corners, while a side that is behind and chasing a goal will usually force more late on.

Both markets carry wider margins than the main result markets, and the information you need, such as the referee appointment, often appears only shortly before kick-off.

Accumulators: where the maths turns against you

An accumulator, or acca, is the European name for what US bettors call a parlay: several selections in one bet, all of which must win. The odds multiply, which is the appeal. Four selections at 1.80 each give combined odds of 1.80 x 1.80 x 1.80 x 1.80 = 10.50 (rounded), so £10 returns £104.98.

The margin multiplies as well. Suppose each of those four selections has a true chance of 52.6%, which makes the fair price 1.90. On a single at 1.80, you get 1.80 / 1.90 = 94.7% of fair value, a 5.3% disadvantage. Across four legs, the fair combined price is 1.90 to the power of four, about 13.03, against the 10.50 on offer. That is 80.6% of fair value, close to a 19% disadvantage. The chance of all four winning is 52.6% to the power of four, about 7.7%, so the bet loses roughly 12 times out of 13. More detail is in parlays and accumulators explained.

Same game parlays and bet builders, which combine several markets from one match, add a further problem. The outcomes are linked: a team winning heavily and the match going over 2.5 goals tend to happen together. Bookmakers price that correlation in, and the margin on these products is often higher than on the individual markets, so the combined price is rarely as generous as it looks.

Before you place a football bet

Most football betting mistakes come from the slip, not the analysis. Run through this before you confirm a bet:

• Check whether the market is settled on 90 minutes or includes extra time and penalties.
• Confirm the line: -1 and -0.75 are different bets with different outcomes.
• Wait for team news where you can, because a missing striker or goalkeeper changes goals and result markets.
• Work out the implied probability and ask whether you rate the chance higher, which is the basis of value betting.
• Keep accas short and stakes small, and never add legs to make the price look better.

Sports betting is legal in some countries and US states and banned or restricted in others. In India, the law differs by state and some states ban online betting. Check the rules where you live and bet only with licensed operators. Football runs almost every day of the week, which makes it easy to bet more than you meant to. Set a budget and a time limit, and see our responsible gambling page for tools and support services.