UFC Betting Guide: Moneyline, Method, Rounds and Settlement

UFC betting looks simple on the surface: two fighters, one price each. Underneath sit some of the most detailed markets in sport, because a mixed martial arts (MMA) fight can end by knockout, submission or decision, in any round, and the clock matters as much as the result. This guide explains the moneyline, method of victory, round betting, totals and go the distance markets, how draws and no contests are usually settled, and why the weigh-in is part of your homework.

Many of the ideas overlap with boxing, so if you have read our boxing betting guide you will recognise the scoring system. The differences are in the format, the ways a fight can finish and the settlement rules, and those are what this page concentrates on.

How a UFC fight is structured

Standard UFC fights are scheduled for three rounds of five minutes. Title fights and main events are scheduled for five rounds. That single fact changes many markets: a five-round fight gives a strong finisher more time and gives a fighter with poor cardio more chances to fade, so the same pairing would be priced differently over three or five rounds.

A fight can end in one of these ways:

• KO or TKO: a knockout, or the referee stopping the fight because a fighter cannot defend themselves. A doctor's stoppage or a corner retiring their fighter is usually recorded as a TKO.
• Submission: a fighter taps out or is rendered unable to continue by a choke or joint lock.
• Decision: the fight goes the full distance and three judges score it, using the 10-point must system familiar from boxing.
• Disqualification, draw or no contest: all rare, and all with their own settlement rules.

Check the scheduled length before you look at any rounds market. A line of 2.5 rounds means something very different in a three-round fight than in a five-round main event.

The moneyline and fighter prices

The moneyline asks who wins. A favourite at -250 (2/5, 1.40) against an underdog at +200 (2/1, 3.00) implies 71.43% and 33.33%, a total of 104.76%. A $100 bet on the favourite wins $40; a $50 bet on the underdog wins $100 and returns $150.

Upsets are a regular part of MMA, because one clean punch or one scramble into a submission can end a fight that one fighter was controlling. That does not make every underdog a good bet. It does mean that a short-priced favourite's price is only a good one if you believe the fighter's chance is higher still, and a -500 favourite needs to win more than 83% of the time to justify the price. See moneyline bets explained for the conversions behind those numbers.

How draws and no contests usually settle

Draws are uncommon in MMA, but they happen, usually when one judge scores the fight level or when a point deduction evens the cards. How a draw affects your bet depends on the market:

• Two-way moneyline with no draw option: the stake is usually refunded.
• Three-way fight result with a draw option: bets on either fighter usually lose and only the draw wins.
• Method of victory and round betting: bets on either fighter usually lose, since neither fighter won.

A no contest is different. It is declared when a fight ends without a result, for example after an accidental foul early in the fight leaves a fighter unable to continue. Most bookmakers void bets on the fight result and method markets when a no contest is declared, and return the stake. Some settle markets that were already decided before the stoppage, such as a rounds total that had already been passed. If a result is later overturned, for example after a failed drug test, bookmakers usually settle on the official result announced at the event and ignore the later change.

These are the usual rules, not universal ones. Check your bookmaker's MMA rules before betting, especially on the three-way market.

Method of victory

Method of victory splits each fighter's win into how it happens. A sample market for a three-round fight:

• Fighter A by KO/TKO: 2.75 (7/4, +175)
• Fighter A by submission: 8.00 (7/1, +700)
• Fighter A by decision: 3.75 (11/4, +275)
• Fighter B by KO/TKO: 7.00 (6/1, +600)
• Fighter B by submission: 15.00 (14/1, +1400)
• Fighter B by decision: 9.00 (8/1, +800)
• Draw: 51.00 (50/1, +5000)

The implied probabilities add up to about 109.6%, a wider margin than the 104.8% on the moneyline above. That is normal: the more outcomes a market has, the more room the bookmaker has to build in margin. £10 on Fighter A by KO/TKO returns £27.50, against £14.00 for the same stake on the moneyline at 1.40, but now a submission or a decision win for Fighter A loses your bet.

Many bookmakers also offer "wins inside the distance", which pays if a fighter wins by KO/TKO or submission. You can build the same position yourself by splitting a stake across the two method prices. £7.44 on KO/TKO at 2.75 and £2.56 on submission at 8.00 return £20.46 or £20.48, which works out at combined odds of about 2.05. If the bookmaker offers Fighter A inside the distance at 2.10, the single bet returns £21.00 on the same £10 and is the better price. Doing that comparison takes a minute and it is one of the few places where shopping within a single bookmaker's markets pays off.

Two settlement points to check: how a disqualification is classed (some books group it with KO/TKO, others treat it separately), and whether a technical decision, where a fight stopped by an accidental foul late enough in the bout goes to the scorecards, counts as a decision. It usually does.

Round betting, totals and go the distance

Exact round betting

Round betting asks which fighter wins and in which round, with decision wins listed separately. £5 on Fighter A to win in round 1 at 6.00 returns £30. Prices are long because you need the winner, a finish and the timing all to be right.

One rule surprises people. If a fighter does not come out for round 2, the official result is a TKO at the end of round 1, and round bets settle on round 1. The fight ends where the official result says it ended, not when the announcement is made.

Total rounds

Total rounds markets are measured in time. With five-minute rounds, 1.5 rounds is reached at 2:30 of round 2 and 2.5 rounds at 2:30 of round 3. A finish at 2:29 of round 3 is under 2.5; a finish at 2:31 is over.

Worked example: over 2.5 rounds at -150 implies 60%. A $75 stake wins $50 and returns $125 if the fight passes 2:30 of round 3. Under 1.5 rounds at +180 implies 35.71%, and a $20 stake wins $36 if the fight ends before 2:30 of round 2.

Go the distance

Fight goes the distance is a yes or no market on whether the judges will be needed. Suppose yes is 2.20 (6/5, +120) and no is 1.67 (4/6, -150). The implied probabilities are 45.45% and 60.0%, a total of about 105.5%.

This market is not the same as over 2.5 rounds in a three-round fight. If a fighter is stopped at 4:10 of round 3, over 2.5 rounds wins because the fight passed 2:30 of round 3, but go the distance yes loses because the fight did not reach the final bell. If you think a fight is likely to be competitive but could end late, the totals market and the go the distance market can give you very different results from the same view. How a technical decision settles in go the distance markets also differs between bookmakers, so read the rules.

Weight cuts, weigh-ins and late changes

Most UFC fighters cut weight in the days before a fight and rehydrate after the official weigh-in, which is usually held the day before the event. A hard cut can leave a fighter weaker or slower, and a fighter who misses weight has often struggled. Missing weight does not usually cancel the fight. It may go ahead at a catchweight, with the fighter who missed giving up part of their purse, and bets usually stand.

The bigger risk to your bet is a change of opponent. Injuries and illness lead to late replacements, sometimes only days before the card. Most bookmakers void bets when one of the named fighters is replaced, and also when a fight is moved outside a set time window. A short-notice replacement fight often deserves a fresh look rather than a quick bet: the replacement may have had little time to prepare, but the original fighter has also prepared for someone else.

Style is the other thing to study. A wrestler who can take a striker down and keep them there changes the method and round markets more than the moneyline. Reach, cardio over five rounds and how often a fighter has been finished all feed into prices. Watching full fights tells you more than highlight clips, which show finishes and hide the rounds that went nowhere.

Parlays on fight cards

A UFC card has a dozen or so fights, which makes it tempting to combine favourites. Three favourites at -250 (1.40) each give a parlay price of 1.40 × 1.40 × 1.40 = 2.744, or about +174. A $30 parlay returns $82.32.

The margin compounds as you add fights. Remove the margin from the moneyline above and the favourite's chance is about 68.2%. Three fights at that chance come in together 0.682 × 0.682 × 0.682 = 31.7% of the time, a fair price of about 3.16. Offered at 2.744, the expected return is about 87 cents per dollar staked, against about 95 cents for a single bet on one favourite. A favourite parlay feels safe because each leg looks likely, and that feeling is exactly what the price exploits. Our guide to parlays and accas explains the effect across all sports.

Before you bet on a UFC fight

Work through this list on fight week:

• Check that betting is legal where you are and that the bookmaker is licensed there. In the US that means a state-licensed sportsbook in a state that allows it.
• Confirm the scheduled number of rounds, since main events and title fights run to five.
• Watch the weigh-in results and any news about opponent changes.
• Compare the moneyline, method of victory and inside the distance prices before choosing a market.
• Read the rules on draws, no contests, disqualifications and technical decisions.
• Decide your total stake for the card in advance, and do not chase a loss from the early fights on the main event.

Fight nights run late and the main card arrives after hours of prelims, which is when stakes tend to creep up. If betting stops being fun, our responsible gambling page has tools and contacts, and in the US you can call 1-800-GAMBLER.