Test Cricket Betting Guide: Draws, Sessions and Five-Day Swings

Test cricket is the slowest betting market in mainstream sport and, for patient bettors, one of the most interesting. A match can last five days, the draw is a genuine outcome, and the price of every result shifts with each session, each wicket and each rain cloud. This guide explains the markets you will find for a Test match, how they are settled, and what the five-day arc does to prices.

It is written for readers in countries where cricket betting is legal and licensed, such as the UK, so examples use pounds with fractional and decimal odds. Betting law differs from one country to another; for India, see our page on whether online betting is legal in India. If you mostly follow the short formats, our T20 cricket betting guide and IPL betting guide cover those markets.

Why Test matches bet differently

Most Tests are scheduled over five days, with around 90 overs planned for each day, split into three sessions. Each side can bat twice. There is no limit on how long an innings lasts, only on how much time is left in the match, so time is a resource in a way it never is in T20.

That changes everything about the betting. To win, a side has to bowl the opposition out twice, or bowl them out once and make them follow on, inside the time available. If it cannot, the match is drawn regardless of who was on top. A team can dominate for four days and still fail to win because rain took the fifth, or because the pitch never broke up.

The length of the match also gives prices time to swing. A side priced at 3.00 on the first morning might trade at 1.30 by the third evening and drift back to 2.50 after a collapse. For bettors who follow the game closely, that movement is where most of the opportunity and most of the risk sit.

The three-way result: win, lose or draw

Match odds for a Test have three outcomes. Suppose England are 11/10 (2.10), the draw is 11/4 (3.75) and the visitors are 21/10 (3.10). The implied probabilities are 47.6%, 26.7% and 32.3%, which add up to 106.6%. The extra 6.6% is the bookmaker's margin, a little higher than a typical two-way T20 market because it is spread over three outcomes.

A £10 bet on the draw at 11/4 returns £37.50 if the match is drawn: £27.50 profit plus your stake. A drawn Test is any match that ends without a result after it has started, whether one side was close to winning or rain washed most of it out. If no ball is bowled at all and the match is abandoned, most bookmakers make match bets void.

Ties are a separate case. A tie happens when the side batting last is bowled out with the scores level, which has happened only twice in the history of men's Test cricket. Bookmakers handle it differently: a common rule is that draw bets lose and dead heat rules apply to the two teams, so a bet on either side is paid at half stake. Read the rules if you want to know exactly.

If you want an opinion on the winner without the draw, some bookmakers offer draw no bet, where your stake is returned if the match is drawn. Our guide to moneyline and match winner bets explains how two-way and three-way markets relate.

Session betting, innings runs and top batter

Beyond match odds, the main Test markets are:

• Session runs: how many runs will be scored in a named session, such as day two afternoon
• Session wickets: how many wickets fall in that session
• First innings runs for each team, for example 325.5
• Top team batter, usually for the first innings only
• Player runs and milestones, such as a named batter to make 50 or a century
• Specials such as the follow-on, a century in the match, or method of first dismissal

Session markets are the closest Test cricket gets to quick betting. Suppose the line for the morning session on day two is 85.5 runs with the over at 5/6 (1.83). A £12 bet returns £22 if 86 or more runs are scored in that session. If the session is cut short by rain or bad light, the bet is usually void unless the result was already decided, so a winning over bet that had already passed 86 normally stands. Bookmakers also differ on what happens if an innings ends partway through a session, so check whether the market counts only one team's runs.

Top batter markets in Tests normally cover the first innings, and dead heat rules apply if two batters finish level. With £10 at 4/1 (5.00) on a batter who ties with one teammate, your stake is split: £5 at 5.00 returns £25, so your profit is £15 instead of £40. A player who is in the XI but does not bat because the innings is declared or rain intervenes usually counts as a loser, while a player who is left out is void. Nightwatchmen and declarations make this market less predictable than it looks.

The follow-on and other specials

Under the Laws of Cricket, in a match of five days or more, a side that bats first and leads by at least 200 runs on first innings may ask the other side to bat again straight away. That is the follow-on. In a shorter match the required lead is lower, and if a full day is lost before play starts, the margin is based on the number of days left, so a five-day Test that loses its first day uses the 150-run figure.

Betting on the follow-on usually comes in two forms: whether a side will be asked to follow on, and whether it will be enforced if available. They are not the same thing. Captains often decline the follow-on to rest their bowlers, especially in hot conditions or when the pitch is expected to deteriorate, preferring to bat again and bowl last. A side leading by 250 is not guaranteed to enforce it, so price the decision as well as the deficit.

Other specials, such as a century in the match or a hat-trick, carry higher margins than match odds. Treat them as entertainment unless you have a specific reason to think the price is wrong.

Weather, pitch wear and the five-day arc

Weather is the biggest single influence on the draw price. Each session lost to rain removes time a side needs to take 20 wickets, so a wet forecast pushes the draw shorter before a ball is bowled. Bad light can do the same in the last session of a day. The forecast for days four and five matters more than the forecast for day one, because that is when results are usually forced.

The pitch changes over five days. On many surfaces batting is easiest on days two and three, then cracks and footmarks give spinners more help on days four and five. Batting last can be hard, which is one reason captains often choose to bat first. Overhead conditions matter too: cloud cover tends to help swing bowlers, while hard, dry pitches favour pace and bounce early and spin late. Day-night Tests with a pink ball add another variable, because the ball can behave differently under lights in the evening session.

Read the conditions before you read the team sheet. A side with a strong spin attack is worth more on a dry surface in the fourth innings than on a green seaming pitch in cool weather.

In-play: how prices swing over five days

Because a Test takes so long, many bettors only engage once the match is under way. Prices react to every wicket, partnership and forecast update. The draw price in particular follows a clear pattern: if both sides bat well and time ticks away, it shortens steadily, and if wickets tumble it drifts quickly.

Say you backed the visitors with £20 at 4.00 before the match, a potential return of £80. By the third evening they lead comfortably and are priced at 1.50. The implied probability has risen from 25% to 66.7%, and the fair value of your bet at that moment is roughly £80 / 1.50 = £53.33. A cash out offer for this bet will usually be below that figure, because it includes margin. Whether to take it, hedge or let it run is your call; our guide to hedging and cash out shows the maths for each.

Be wary of reacting to a single session. A collapse of four wickets for 30 can look decisive and turn out to be a blip once the tail adds 80 runs. Prices often overreact to the most recent hour of play, and that works against you as often as for you.

Before you place a Test match bet

A five-day match gives you more time to think, so use it. Before each bet:

• Check the forecast for all five days, especially the last two
• Look at recent Tests at the same ground and how the pitch played from day one to day five
• Confirm the playing XI and how many specialist spinners each side has picked
• Read the settlement rules for draws, ties, shortened sessions and players who do not bat
• Convert the price to an implied probability and compare it with your own estimate
• Decide your stake before the match and avoid adding to it session after session

For a wider routine covering team news and pitch reports in any format, see our cricket betting tips. Betting law varies by country, so make sure betting is legal where you are and use a licensed operator. Long matches can turn into long betting sessions; if it stops being fun, our responsible gambling page lists warning signs and where to find help.