Grand National Betting Guide: Each-Way Places, Weights and Rule 4

The Grand National is the race that people who never bet on horses still bet on. Office sweepstakes, a first account opened for the day, a pound on a name that sounds lucky. It is also one of the hardest races of the year to call: a large field, a marathon trip over big fences, and a handicap built to give every runner a chance. Those three facts shape everything about how the race is bet, from the place terms to the way non-runners are treated.

This guide sticks to what is specific to the National. The basics of win and each-way bets, SP and Rule 4 are covered in our horse racing betting guide, and the full arithmetic of place terms is in each-way bets explained. Here we go further: how the weights decide who runs, what extra places are really worth, and how withdrawals hit your returns when thirty-odd horses are involved.

How the race is run

The Grand National is a handicap steeplechase run at Aintree, near Liverpool, in the spring. It covers more than four miles over two circuits of the National course, with fences that have their own names, Becher's Brook and The Chair being the best known. The field is far bigger than in an ordinary race, and horses that fall, unseat their rider or are pulled up are a normal part of the result rather than a freak event.

The race has been changed several times in recent years, mostly on welfare grounds. The maximum number of runners, the start position and parts of the course have all been altered, so figures you read in older previews may no longer apply. Check the current race conditions published by the racecourse or the racing authority before you build a bet around field size or distance.

For betting, the format means three things. Prices are long, because even the strongest horse has to survive a long list of things that can go wrong. Results are volatile, so a sound view can lose for reasons that have nothing to do with ability. And the bookmaker's place terms matter more than usual, because a large share of punters bet each-way.

How handicap weights shape the field

In a handicap, the official handicapper gives each horse a weight to carry based on its official rating. In British jump racing one rating point is worth roughly one pound of weight, so a horse rated 10 points higher than another carries about 10lb more. The aim is that every horse, at its rated ability, would finish level. In practice that never happens, but it is why outsiders win handicaps far more often than they win conditions races.

Weights are shown in stones and pounds, with 14lb to the stone. A horse carrying 11st 2lb has 156lb on its back; one carrying 10st 6lb has 146lb. The difference is 10lb, which is the handicapper's estimate of the gap between them.

The race conditions set a maximum and a minimum weight. The top-rated horse carries the maximum and everyone else is weighted down from there, until the scale hits the minimum. Horses rated below that point all carry the minimum anyway, and they are said to be out of the handicap. Suppose the gap between top weight and minimum weight is 24lb (an illustrative figure, not the actual one). A horse rated 24lb below the top weight carries the minimum and is exactly where the handicapper wants it. A horse rated 30lb below also carries the minimum, so it is effectively 6lb worse off than its rating says it should be. Previews often call this its position in the long handicap.

The weights are published well before the race. Horses that win in the meantime may be raised in the ratings without their National weight changing, which can make them look well treated. The conditions may also add a penalty for a win after the weights are out, so read them rather than assuming.

Each-way terms and extra places

Under the standard UK pattern, a handicap with 16 or more runners pays four places at 1/4 the odds. The National qualifies easily, so that is the starting point. Many bookmakers go further for this race and advertise extra places, paying five, six or more. The offer varies by bookmaker, can change in the days before the race, and sometimes comes with a smaller fraction or conditions such as a maximum stake or eligible bet types. The only terms that count are the ones shown on your bet slip when you place the bet.

Worked example with standard terms: £5 each-way at 40/1, four places at 1/4 the odds. The total stake is £10 and the place odds are 40/4, which is 10/1.

• The horse wins: the win part returns £205 (£200 profit plus £5 stake) and the place part returns £55, a total of £260.
• The horse finishes second, third or fourth: the win part loses and the place part returns £55, a £45 profit on the £10 outlay.
• The horse finishes fifth or worse, falls or is pulled up: both parts lose.

Now take a 33/1 shot that finishes fifth, again £5 each-way. With four places, the bet loses £10. With a five-place offer at 1/4 the odds, the place part is paid at 33/4, or 8.25/1, and returns £46.25. With a six-place offer at 1/5 the odds, the place part is paid at 33/5, or 6.6/1, and returns £38. The extra place turned a loser into a winner, but the six-place version pays less per placed horse. When two bookmakers offer different deals, compare both the number of places and the fraction rather than just the headline.

Why a big field favours each-way betting

In a small race, the favourite often takes one of the paid places, which leaves little room for everyone else. In a field of 30 runners (a round number for illustration), four paid places are 13.3% of the finishing positions on average and five places are 16.7%. Long prices combined with several paid places make the place part of an each-way bet worth something in its own right.

The way to judge it is to turn the place odds into a probability. A 33/1 shot at 1/4 terms has place odds of 8.25/1, which is 9.25 in decimal and implies a 10.8% chance of finishing in the paid places. If your own estimate for a top-four finish is 12%, the place part is worth 0.12 x 9.25 = 1.11 per pound staked, an expected gain of 11p per £1. If a five-place offer at the same fraction lifts your estimate to 15%, the figure becomes 0.15 x 9.25 = 1.39, or 39p per £1. Those estimates are yours to make, and in a race this chaotic they are rough, but the method shows why extra places carry real value when the fraction stays at 1/4. Our guide to value betting explains how to build and test estimates like these.

The usual each-way break-even still applies. At 1/4 terms, a horse that only places covers your total stake only if its win price is longer than 4/1. Short-priced horses rarely suit an each-way bet even in the National.

Ante-post bets, non-runners and Rule 4

The National has a long ante-post market, with prices available weeks before the race. Ante-post bets are placed before the final declarations, and the usual rule is simple: if your horse does not run, the stake is lost. Many bookmakers soften this for big races with a non-runner no bet concession, which returns your stake if the horse is withdrawn. Check when the concession starts and whether your bet was placed after that point.

Ante-post bets struck before the final declarations are normally not subject to Rule 4, because you accepted the risk that your own horse might not make the line-up. Bets placed after declarations are different. If a rival is withdrawn after you took a fixed price, a Rule 4 deduction can reduce your winnings, and in a big field more than one horse can come out. The deductions are added together, up to a cap of 75p in the pound, with the size of each set by the published table in your bookmaker's rules.

Worked example: on race day you take £10 at 20/1. Two horses are then withdrawn, and the table gives deductions of 10p and 5p for their prices (illustrative figures). The combined deduction is 15p in the pound. Your horse wins: winnings of £200 are reduced by 15%, to £170, and with the stake you receive £180.

Each-way bets take the same deduction on both parts. With £5 each-way at 20/1, 1/4 the odds, and the same 15p deduction, a third-placed finish pays the place part at 5/1. The £25 of place winnings becomes £21.25, so the return is £26.25 on a £10 stake. Reserves can sometimes take the place of withdrawn horses up to a set deadline, which keeps the field size up; the conditions say when that deadline falls.

Other Grand National markets

The outright market is where most money goes, but bookmakers build a lot around the race:

• Betting without the favourite, which settles as if the market leader were not in the race.
• Match bets between two named horses, settled on which finishes ahead. Rules differ if neither horse completes, so read them.
• Finishing position and top-six or top-eight markets, which work like place-only bets.
• Specials such as the number of finishers or the starting price of the winner.
• Forecasts and tricasts, settled by the computer dividend (CSF and computer tricast), which can be large in a big field.

Specials usually carry a bigger margin than the main win market. Add up the implied probabilities of every option in a market, as shown in how betting odds work, and you will often find the total well above 100%. Combination tricasts also grow fast: four horses in any order is 24 lines, so £1 a line costs £24.

What to look at in the runners

Previews of the National are full of trends, such as age, weight carried and previous runs over the fences. Treat them as descriptions of past races, not rules, especially now that the race conditions have changed. A few points are more useful than any trend list.

Stamina comes first. Plenty of horses look good for three miles and fade over the last half mile of a longer race, so look for proven form over long distances. Jumping matters almost as much: a horse that makes mistakes in ordinary chases is at greater risk over bigger, unusual fences. The going changes the picture too. Soft ground makes a long race even more of a stamina test, so check the going and how each horse has handled it before. Finally, look at the weight in context. A horse near the top of the handicap is one the handicapper rates highly, and a horse out of the handicap is carrying more than its rating suggests.

Before you place a Grand National bet

Run through this list on the day:

• Read the place terms on the bet slip: the number of places and the fraction, plus any conditions on an extra-place offer.
• Confirm the total stake: £5 each-way is £10.
• If you bet ante-post, check whether non-runner no bet applied when you placed the bet.
• Know whether you have a fixed price or SP, and remember Rule 4 can apply to fixed prices if horses come out late.
• Check the current race conditions rather than relying on last year's numbers.

Betting laws differ by country and, in places such as the US and India, by state; some Indian states ban online betting. Use a licensed operator where you live. A once-a-year race is a common reason for opening an account, so set a deposit limit from the start, and see our responsible gambling page if betting stops being fun.