Draw No Bet and Double Chance: How They Work and How to Price Them

Draw no bet and double chance are the two football (soccer) markets built for people who like a side but are worried about the draw. Draw no bet gives your stake back if the match is level. Double chance lets you cover two of the three results with one bet. Both are cheaper versions of insurance you could build yourself from the match result market, and that is the most useful way to understand them.

This guide explains how each one settles, then shows the formulas for turning ordinary 1X2 prices into draw no bet and double chance prices, with every step worked through in pounds. Once you can do that, you can check whether the bookmaker's own price is fair or whether you are paying extra for the convenience. If you are new to the main football markets, our guide to how to bet on football covers the basics first.

How draw no bet settles

Draw no bet (DNB) has two selections, home and away. If your team wins, you are paid at the DNB price. If the match is drawn, the bet is void and your stake comes back. If your team loses, you lose the stake.

Say you back the home side DNB for £20 at 1.55, which is 11/20 in fractional odds and -182 in American odds. A home win returns £20 × 1.55 = £31, a profit of £11. A draw returns your £20. An away win loses the £20.

Like most football markets, DNB is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so a cup tie that goes to extra time counts as a draw. In an accumulator, a DNB leg that ends in a draw is treated as void: it counts at odds of 1.00 and the rest of the acca carries on with a smaller combined price. Draw no bet is the same bet as level ball (0) on the Asian handicap, although the two prices can differ slightly between markets and bookmakers.

How double chance settles

Double chance has three selections, each covering two results:

• 1X: home win or draw.
• X2: draw or away win.
• 12: home win or away win, so anything except a draw.

You win if either of your two results happens, and there are no refunds. A £20 bet on X2 at 1.72 (18/25, -139) returns £20 × 1.72 = £34.40 if the away side wins or the match is drawn, a profit of £14.40. A home win loses the £20.

Because each selection covers roughly two thirds of the possibilities, the prices are short. That is fine on a single, but it is the reason double chance accas are less safe than they feel: five legs that each look comfortable still multiply into a bet that loses more often than most people expect.

Working out the draw no bet price from 1X2 odds

Take a match priced at home 2.20 (6/5, +120), draw 3.40 (12/5, +240) and away 3.50 (5/2, +250). You can recreate a home DNB bet with two bets on the 1X2 market: a main bet on the home side and a small bet on the draw sized so that a draw returns exactly your total stake.

For a £10 total, the draw stake is £10 ÷ 3.40 = £2.94, which leaves £7.06 for the home side. If the match is drawn, £2.94 × 3.40 = £10.00 to the nearest penny, so your £10 comes back, just as it would with DNB. If the home side wins, £7.06 × 2.20 = £15.53, a profit of £5.53. If the away side wins, both bets lose and the £10 is gone.

Divide the home-win return by the total stake and you have the DNB price: £15.53 ÷ £10 = 1.553. The same thing written as a formula is:

DNB home = home odds × (draw odds - 1) ÷ draw odds

So 2.20 × 2.40 ÷ 3.40 = 5.28 ÷ 3.40 = 1.553. For the away side, swap in the away price: 3.50 × 2.40 ÷ 3.40 = 8.40 ÷ 3.40 = 2.471. These are the prices the 1X2 market implies. If a bookmaker offers home DNB at 1.50, it is charging more than its own match odds suggest, and £20 there returns £30 against £31.06 at 1.553.

Working out double chance prices from 1X2 odds

Double chance is simpler. You are backing two outcomes at once, so add their implied probabilities and turn the total back into odds:

Double chance = 1 ÷ (1 ÷ first odds + 1 ÷ second odds)

With the same 2.20, 3.40 and 3.50 prices, the implied probabilities are 45.45% for the home win, 29.41% for the draw and 28.57% for the away win. That gives:

• 1X: 1 ÷ (0.4545 + 0.2941) = 1 ÷ 0.7487 = 1.336
• X2: 1 ÷ (0.2941 + 0.2857) = 1 ÷ 0.5798 = 1.725
• 12: 1 ÷ (0.4545 + 0.2857) = 1 ÷ 0.7403 = 1.351

To build 1X yourself with £10, split the stake in proportion to the two implied probabilities: £10 × 0.4545 ÷ 0.7487 = £6.07 on the home side and £3.93 on the draw. A home win returns £6.07 × 2.20 = £13.35 and a draw returns £3.93 × 3.40 = £13.36. The penny gap is rounding. Either way the return is about £13.36 for £10, which is the 1.336 price from the formula.

The bookmaker's margin and the fair prices

The three 1X2 probabilities above add up to 45.45% + 29.41% + 28.57% = 103.44%. The extra 3.44% is the bookmaker's margin, and every price you build from these odds carries it. On average you get back about 96.7p for every £1 staked, whether you back the home side, the draw, home DNB or double chance 1X. The derived markets do not dodge the margin. They just repackage it.

To estimate the fair prices, divide each probability by 1.0344 first. Home becomes 43.94%, the draw 28.43% and away 27.62%, which are fair odds of 2.28, 3.52 and 3.62. For draw no bet there is a shortcut: fair home DNB = 1 + home odds ÷ away odds, so 1 + 2.20 ÷ 3.50 = 1.629, and fair away DNB = 1 + 3.50 ÷ 2.20 = 2.591. For double chance, use the fair probabilities in the same formula as before: 1X is 1 ÷ (0.4394 + 0.2843) = 1.382, X2 is 1 ÷ (0.2843 + 0.2762) = 1.784 and 12 is 1 ÷ (0.4394 + 0.2762) = 1.397.

The DNB shortcut works because removing the margin proportionally scales both sides by the same amount, so only the ratio of the home and away prices matters. This proportional method is a simplification, as the implied probability guide explains, since bookmakers often load more margin onto the longer prices. Use the fair figures as a rough guide to what the market thinks, and the margin-inclusive figures (1.553, 1.336 and so on) as the benchmark for what you are actually being paid. If a bookmaker's own DNB or double chance price is shorter than the one built from its 1X2 odds, that market has a bigger margin.

When each market makes sense

A synthetic DNB bet is a home bet plus a draw bet, so its value is a blend of the two. It only beats a straight home bet if the draw is the better bet of the pair.

Suppose you rate the home side at 46% and the draw at 30%. A home bet at 2.20 has an expected value of 0.46 × 2.20 - 1 = +1.2% per pound. A draw bet at 3.40 has 0.30 × 3.40 - 1 = +2.0%. Home DNB at 1.553 has 0.46 × 1.553 + 0.30 × 1 - 1 = +1.4%, which sits between the two, closer to the home figure because most of the money is on the home side. If you rated the draw at 25% instead, the draw bet would be negative (0.25 × 3.40 - 1 = -15%) and DNB would drag your home bet down rather than protect it. Our value betting guide explains expected value in more detail.

That leads to some practical points:

• DNB fits a favourite you expect to win but where a draw is a real risk, such as a strong side away from home or a team that often draws tight games. You give up price for that cover: 2.20 drops to about 1.55.
• Double chance on the underdog (X2) suits a side you think will avoid defeat but may not win. It is the same idea as +0.5 on the Asian handicap.
• Double chance 12 is for matches where you expect a winner but cannot pick one. There is no Asian handicap equivalent, because the bet is against the draw itself.
• Double chance on a heavy favourite (1X at 1.10 or shorter) rarely makes sense as a single. The return is tiny, and one surprise defeat wipes out the profit from many wins.

Before you place the bet

Running these numbers takes about a minute.

• Note the 1X2 prices for the match at the same bookmaker.
• Work out the DNB or double chance price those odds imply, using the formulas above.
• Compare it with the bookmaker's own price, and with the Asian handicap 0 or +0.5 line, and take the best of them.
• Ask whether the draw cover is worth what it costs at your own estimate of the draw, not at the bookmaker's.
• Check the settlement rules for extra time, abandonment and void legs in accumulators.
• Decide your stake first and keep it within your bankroll.

Betting laws differ by country and, in the US, by state, so only use operators licensed where you live. If you find yourself betting more than you planned, our responsible gambling page explains the limit tools and where to get support.