Darts World Championship Betting: Sets, Outrights and Specials

The PDC World Darts Championship is the darts event that many casual punters bet on every year. It is played at Alexandra Palace in London from mid-December into early January, it runs through the Christmas period when there is little other live sport on television, and it uses a sets format rather than the legs format of most tournaments. That last point changes the betting more than anything else, and it is why the event deserves its own guide.

This page is about the World Championship specifically. If you want the basics of darts markets, such as how a legs handicap or a 180s line settles, start with our darts betting guide. Here we cover how sets change the odds, outright and each-way betting on the tournament, quarter and specials markets, sets handicaps and totals, the 180s, nine-dart and checkout markets, how prices move across the Christmas schedule, and what happens to your bet if a player withdraws. Stakes are in pounds and the examples show the arithmetic in full.

How the World Championship differs from other darts events

Three things set it apart for a bettor: the format, the field and the schedule.

Matches are played in sets, and each set is played in legs. To win the match a player must win a set number of sets, and that number grows as the tournament goes on, so the early matches are short and the later rounds and the final are much longer. The exact length of each round, and any rule about winning a deciding set by two clear legs, can change, so check the published format for that year before you bet on handicaps, totals or correct score.

The draw mixes established tour players with qualifiers from other tours and regions, and some of them will be playing on this stage for the first time. Bookmakers have far less data on those players, which affects both match prices and specials. The event is also spread over several weeks, with afternoon and evening sessions, a pause over Christmas itself and the closing rounds around New Year. Players can go days between matches, which is very different from a weekend tour event.

The atmosphere at Alexandra Palace, known to fans as Ally Pally, is louder and more theatrical than at a floor event. Some players seem to enjoy that and some look uncomfortable, but a reputation for handling the stage is hard to measure, so be wary of paying a premium for it.

Why the sets format changes the odds

In a legs match, every leg counts towards one running total. In a sets match, a leg only counts towards the set being played, and the leg count starts again in the next set. A player can win more legs across the match and still lose. In a first-to-3-sets match, Player A could win two sets 3-0 and lose three sets 2-3: A wins 12 legs to B's 9, but B wins the match 3 sets to 2.

The effect on the odds comes from match length. A short match gives the weaker player a real chance to nick it with one good spell, so early rounds produce upsets that surprise people who only look at averages. A long match gives the stronger player more time to show the edge, so the later rounds tend to be less volatile. The same logic runs through snooker, where the longest matches stretch over several sessions; our snooker betting guide covers that side.

An illustrative model, not real data

The numbers below come from a simple model we built for this page, not from real players, real matches or any particular year's format. They only show the shape of the effect. Assume Player A wins 53% of legs against Player B, ignore who throws first, and treat every set as first to 3 legs. Our calculations from those assumptions:

• A wins a single set 55.6% of the time.
• First to 2 sets: A wins the match 58.4% of the time.
• First to 4 sets: 62.1%.
• First to 7 sets: 66.0%.

Those match lengths stand in for a short match, a medium one and a long one; they are not a claim about any round. What matters is the direction. The same small edge per leg is worth more the longer the match runs, so B's chance falls from 41.6% in the short match to 34.0% in the long one. As fair decimal odds, A moves from about 1.71 to about 1.52, and B from about 2.40 to about 2.94.

Two practical lessons follow. Early-round upsets do not mean the form book is useless; short matches simply give the weaker player more room. And a strong player should be shorter in a later, longer round than the same pairing would be over a short tour match, so do not judge a World Championship price against what the two players were quoted at on the tour.

Outright and each-way betting on the tournament

The outright market asks who will win the tournament. It opens long before the event, prices move when the draw is made and as form changes, and it stays open in-play until the final. Betting weeks ahead means your money is tied up and the margin is spread across a long list of names, the same trade-offs as any futures bet; futures betting explained covers them in general terms.

The short early rounds cut both ways. A favourite has to survive several matches in which one off night ends the tournament, which is one reason the shortest outright prices are rarely as short as a reader of the averages might expect. Further down the list, a player who would need to beat several stronger opponents over long matches is usually priced to reflect how hard that is.

Most bookmakers offer each-way on the outright. The place part pays if your player reaches a stated stage, such as the final or the semi-finals, at a fraction of the odds. The fraction and the number of places vary by bookmaker, so read the terms shown next to the market. Our guide to each-way bets explained covers the mechanics.

Worked example: £10 each-way at 25/1

Say you back a player at 25/1 (26.0 in decimal) for £10 each-way, so the total stake is £20. Below are two sets of example place terms; your bookmaker's terms may differ.

With 1/2 the odds for reaching the final (two places), the place part is settled at 25/2, which is 12.5/1 or 13.5 in decimal.

• Your player wins: the win part returns £10 × 26.0 = £260 and the place part £10 × 13.5 = £135. Total return £395, profit £375.
• Your player loses the final: the win part loses and the place part returns £135. Profit £115.
• Your player goes out earlier: both parts lose and you are £20 down.

With 1/4 the odds for reaching the semi-finals (four places), the place part is settled at 25/4, which is 6.25/1 or 7.25 in decimal. A losing semi-finalist or losing finalist returns £10 × 7.25 = £72.50, a profit of £52.50 on the £20 staked. A winner returns £260 + £72.50 = £332.50.

The first set of terms pays more per place, the second pays more often. Which is the better deal depends on how likely you think your player is to reach each stage. The each-way calculator does these sums for any odds and terms.

Quarter and section betting

Once the draw is made, many bookmakers split it into quarters, or sometimes smaller sections, and price the winner of each one. Winning a quarter usually means coming through that part of the draw to the semi-finals. You only need your player to beat the others in the same section, not the whole field, so prices are shorter than in the outright and the bet is settled sooner.

Read the draw before you bet. A strong seed can sit in a quarter full of dangerous players while another quarter looks open, and the outright price does not always show that. The exact condition for winning a section bet is set out in the market name or the rules, so check it, especially when the bookmaker uses sections smaller than a quarter.

Top nationality, top debutant and other specials

Bookmakers add specials around the tournament, and the menu varies from one bookmaker to the next. Typical examples include the top player from a named country, the top debutant, the stage a named player reaches, and the nationality of the winner. These markets often take small stakes and carry wide margins, but they are also where a bettor who follows the qualifiers closely can sometimes know more than the price.

They have settlement quirks. Top nationality and top debutant markets are usually decided by the furthest round reached, so two players who go out in the same round can tie. Many bookmakers settle such ties under dead heat rules: if you backed one of two tied players for £10 at 6/1 (7.0), half the stake is paid at full odds, so you get £5 × 7.0 = £35 back, a profit of £25 rather than £60. Other bookmakers may use a tie-break written into the market rules. Read them first.

Sets handicaps and total sets

Match betting works as it does elsewhere in darts, except that handicaps and totals are counted in sets. A sets handicap of -1.5 means your player must win by at least two sets. Total sets asks how many sets the match will last, over or under a line. Some bookmakers also offer handicaps and totals in legs across the whole match, which behave differently because, as shown above, a sets match can end with an uneven leg count.

The illustrative model shows why the favourite's handicap is harder than it looks. Take a hypothetical first-to-4-sets match in which A wins 53% of legs. A wins the match 62.1% of the time, but covers -1.5 sets, by winning 4-0, 4-1 or 4-2, only 45.4% of the time. The match goes over 5.5 sets, finishing 4-2 or 4-3 either way, 60.9% of the time.

If a bookmaker offered A -1.5 sets at 1.90, that price implies 1 ÷ 1.90 = 52.6%, well above the model's 45.4%, so in this example the handicap would be poor value. The fair price for 45.4% is about 2.20. Use your own estimate of each player's chance of winning a leg, not ours, and if that year's format makes the deciding set run to two clear legs, allow for the extra length. Our page on implied probability explains the conversions.

180s, nine-darters and highest checkout

Throwing specials are popular at the World Championship because the event has many matches and the later ones are long. The general mechanics of these markets are in the darts betting guide; what follows is specific to this tournament.

180s in a match and across the tournament

In a single match, the 180s line depends heavily on how many legs are played, and in a sets match that number can vary a lot. A clean sweep produces far fewer legs than a match that goes to a deciding set, so an over on match 180s is partly a bet that the match will be close. It links naturally to the total sets line, and backing both is closer to one bet than two.

Across the tournament you will find total 180s in the event (over/under a line), most 180s by one player, and sometimes 180s in a given round or session. The player with the most 180s is often the one who plays the most legs, so a long run matters as much as heavy scoring, and ties are again settled under the market's own rules. Before betting a tournament total, compare it with earlier editions only if the format and the number of matches were the same; when the format changes, old totals tell you little.

Nine-dart finish markets and implied probability

A nine-dart finish is a perfect leg: 501 in the fewest darts possible. Bookmakers offer yes/no markets on a nine-darter during the tournament, and sometimes in a single match or session. These are hard markets to price because the event is rare, so margins tend to be wide.

Read the odds as implied probability. The prices that follow are made up to show the method; they are not real quotes and say nothing about how often nine-darters happen. Suppose a nine-darter in the tournament is offered at Yes 6/4 (2.50) and No 1/2 (1.50). Yes implies 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40.0% and No implies 66.7%. Together they add up to 106.7%, so about 6.7 points of the book is margin. A nine-darter in one match at 40/1 (41.0) implies 1 ÷ 41.0 = 2.4%.

Backing the yes side only makes sense if your own estimate of the chance is higher than the implied figure, ideally built from published records of nine-darters on comparable stages and formats. Without that estimate you are paying the margin on a guess, which is the opposite of value betting. Check the settlement wording as well, such as which matches and sessions count.

Highest checkout

Checkout markets come in several forms: the highest checkout in a match (over/under a line), whether there will be a 170 checkout in the tournament, and which player records the highest checkout of the event. Because 170 is the maximum finish, several players can share the top figure in a long tournament. That puts tie rules at the centre of the player market: dead heat settlement can cut your return to a fraction of the quoted odds even when your player hits the top checkout. The yes/no 170 market avoids that problem, and you can read it with the same implied probability habit as the nine-dart market.

How the odds move during the tournament

Prices at the World Championship move for reasons a bettor can follow.

Form shown on the stage. A player who posts a high average in the first match is usually shortened for the next round and in the outright. Some of that is fair, but one short match is a small sample, and a single good or bad night can move the market further than the player's longer record supports. Compare the move with that record before you follow it; if the market has gone too far, that is where value can sit.

The draw opening up. When a favourite goes out, the players left in that part of the draw shorten in both the quarter and outright markets.

The Christmas break. Play stops over Christmas and resumes afterwards. Some players come back sharper and others lose rhythm, and there is no dependable way to tell in advance. Prices at the restart are built on what happened before the break, so allow for more uncertainty than the odds suggest.

Sessions and rest. Players can go several days between matches and play in different sessions each time. Claims about who suits an afternoon or evening slot are common, but they rarely come with numbers you can test, so treat them with caution.

In-play betting between sets

In-play markets run throughout each match, and the short pause between sets is when many bettors act, because the score is fixed and prices settle for a moment. A player who drops the first set can drift a long way, even though in a long match one set is a small deficit.

The illustrative model puts numbers on it. In the hypothetical first-to-4-sets match, A starts at 62.1%, a fair price of about 1.61. After losing the first set, A needs four of the next six sets before B wins three more, and the model gives A 45.4%, a fair price of about 2.20. If the live price on A at 0-1 is much longer than your own estimate allows, that is the gap to look for; if it is close, there is nothing to do.

Two practical points. Check who throws first in the opening leg of the next set, because throwing first is an edge. And remember that the stream you watch can run behind the action, so prices may change or bets may be refused while you are looking at the screen.

If a player withdraws: settlement rules

Withdrawals are uncommon but they do happen, through illness, injury or travel problems, and the rules differ between bookmakers and markets. Common approaches, which you should confirm in your bookmaker's rules:

• Match bets are normally void if the match does not start, for example when the opponent receives a walkover.
• If a player retires during a match, many bookmakers void the match bet unless the result was already decided, while markets already settled, such as a 180 in a completed leg, stand.
• Outright, each-way, quarter and specials bets on a withdrawn player are often treated as losers, because ante-post bets are usually all-in, run or not. Some bookmakers may apply a different rule if the withdrawal comes before the tournament starts.
• Bets on other players in the outright and quarter markets normally stand, even if the draw changes around them.

Because the event runs over the Christmas period, winter illness and travel disruption are realistic risks, which is one more reason to keep ante-post stakes modest.

Checklist before you bet on the World Championship

Run through this before each bet:

• Check the format for that year: sets needed in each round, legs per set and any two-clear-legs rule.
• Remember that early matches are short, so favourites lose more often than their tour form suggests.
• For outrights, compare each-way place terms and work out the returns before you choose.
• Look at the whole quarter of the draw, not only the first opponent.
• For specials, find out how ties are settled and whether dead heat rules apply.
• Convert long prices on nine-darters and 170 checkouts into implied probability.
• Do not overreact to one high average; compare it with the longer record.
• Read the withdrawal and retirement rules for each market you use.
• Set one budget for the whole tournament, not one per day.

The tournament runs for weeks over the holidays with sessions on most days, which makes it easy to bet more than you planned. Decide a total stake before it starts, track every bet as described in our guide to bankroll management, and use the limit and time-out tools listed on our responsible gambling page if betting stops feeling under control. Betting rules differ by country, so only use an operator licensed where you live, and if a price format is unfamiliar, the odds calculator converts between fractional, decimal and American odds.