Anytime Touchdown Scorer Explained: What Counts and How It Pays

An anytime touchdown scorer bet wins if the player you pick scores at least one touchdown at any point in the game. It is the most popular player prop in American football, listed on almost every NFL and college game, and it looks about as simple as a bet can be.

The questions start once you read the settlement rules. Does a quarterback's touchdown pass count for him? What about a two-point conversion, a touchdown in overtime, or a player who is ruled out an hour before kick-off? This guide answers those, explains how anytime differs from first, last and 2+ touchdown markets, and shows with real arithmetic what the prices imply and why these lists carry more margin than the spread. There are no picks here, only how the market works.

What an anytime touchdown scorer bet means

You choose one player. If he is credited with a touchdown in the game, the bet wins. One touchdown is enough, and a second or third touchdown does not pay any extra. If he does not score, the bet loses, however many yards he gains or however close he comes to the goal line.

Sportsbooks label the market Anytime TD Scorer, Anytime Touchdown or Player to Score a TD, usually inside the player props or touchdown scorers tab. Each player is shown with a single "yes" price. There is rarely a "no" side, which matters later when we look at the margin.

The bet is about the player, not his team. A running back can score in a heavy defeat and the bet still wins. A team can score five touchdowns in a blowout and your receiver can still be blanked. If you are new to NFL markets in general, our guide on how to bet on the NFL covers spreads, totals and the other main lines first.

Which touchdowns count and which do not

The general rule is that the player must be the one who carries or catches the ball into the end zone, or recovers it there. The way the touchdown happens does not matter. These normally count for the player who scores:

• A rushing touchdown
• A receiving touchdown
• A kick-off or punt return touchdown
• An interception or fumble return touchdown
• A fumble recovered in the end zone for a touchdown

The point that causes the most confusion is the quarterback. A touchdown pass is credited as a receiving touchdown to the player who catches it. Passing touchdowns do not count for the quarterback in an anytime scorer bet. If your quarterback throws three touchdown passes and never runs one in, the bet loses. The quarterback only counts as a scorer if he runs the ball in himself, catches a touchdown on a trick play, or recovers a fumble in the end zone. That is why quarterbacks who run a lot near the goal line are priced much shorter than pocket passers, even when the pocket passer throws more touchdowns. If you want to bet on touchdown passes, that is a separate market, usually listed as passing touchdowns over/under.

Two-point conversions do not count. A successful two-point try scores points, but it is not a touchdown, so it settles nothing in this market. The same goes for field goals and extra points.

Overtime is generally included. A player who scores the winning touchdown in overtime wins an anytime bet at most sportsbooks, because NFL player props usually cover the full game. A few markets are written for a single quarter or half, and those exclude anything outside that period, so read the market name.

What happens if the player is inactive or does not play

NFL inactive lists are published about 90 minutes before kick-off, and plenty of anytime bets are placed earlier in the week. If your player is ruled out, the bet is often voided and your stake returned. That is the most common rule, not a universal one.

Sportsbooks write their own participation rules. At many books a player prop stands once the player takes part in at least one play, so a receiver who is hurt on the first series and never returns is a losing bet rather than a void one. Some books use the word "active" in their terms, others say the player must "take the field" or "participate", and a few settle differently again. Bets inside a same game parlay can follow a separate rule, where the leg is removed and the price reduced, or the whole ticket is voided.

First, last and 2+ touchdown scorer markets

The same player usually appears in several touchdown markets, each with its own price and its own way to lose.

First touchdown scorer pays only if your player scores the first touchdown of the game. Everyone else on the board loses. That includes the case where the first touchdown comes from a defensive or special teams player you did not back: a pick-six or a punt return on the opening drive makes every offensive player bet a loser at once. Most books also list a "no touchdown" option, and if the game has no touchdown at all, player bets lose. Because only one touchdown can be the first, two players cannot share it, so the dead heat rules you see in golf or top scorer markets do not normally apply. Some books also offer a first touchdown scorer for each team, which is a different market with shorter prices.

Last touchdown scorer works the same way at the other end of the game. It includes overtime, so a late tying score can be overtaken by an overtime touchdown from someone else.

2+ touchdowns (sometimes called to score two or more) needs your player to score at least twice. Exactly one touchdown loses.

Here is how the prices relate for one illustrative running back:

• Anytime touchdown at +150, an implied 40.0%
• First touchdown at +600, an implied 14.3%
• Last touchdown at +600, an implied 14.3%
• 2+ touchdowns at +700, an implied 12.5%

The anytime price is the shortest because it covers every way he can score. First and last are long because they need one specific touchdown out of the several that a typical game produces. If he scores the opening touchdown, both the first and the anytime bet win.

Turning anytime touchdown odds into implied probability

Anytime prices are shown in American odds in the US. Convert each one into the break-even chance it implies before you decide whether it is fair. For a plus price, divide 100 by the odds plus 100. For a minus price, divide the number by the number plus 100. Our implied probability guide covers the formulas for every format.

• +150 (2.50 decimal): 100 / 250 = 40.0%. A $10 bet wins $15 and returns $25.
• -120 (1.83 decimal): 120 / 220 = 54.5%. A $24 bet wins $20 and returns $44. Lead running backs near the goal line are often priced around even money or shorter.
• +600 (7.00 decimal): 100 / 700 = 14.3%. A $5 bet wins $30 and returns $35.

The implied figure is the bar your own estimate has to clear. Say you rate the +600 player at 16% to score. The expected return per $1 staked is 0.16 × 7.00 = $1.12, a profit of 12 cents, or +12%. If you rate him at 13%, the same calculation gives 0.13 × 7.00 = $0.91, a loss of 9%. A difference of three percentage points in your estimate turns a bet worth making into one that is not, which is why vague hunches about who "should score" are a poor basis for these markets. The odds calculator converts prices and returns if you want to check your sums.

Why the margin is higher on touchdown scorer markets

On a standard NFL spread at -110 on both sides, the implied probabilities add up to 104.76%, an overround of 4.76%. Touchdown scorer lists are much harder to read, because there is no "no" price to add up against each player, but you can still estimate the margin from the whole board.

The first touchdown market is the clean test, since exactly one outcome happens. Take a simplified, made-up board where these are the only options:

• Home lead running back +450 (18.18%) and away lead running back +550 (15.38%)
• Home top receiver +650 (13.33%) and away top receiver +700 (12.50%)
• Six more receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks from +900 to +1600 (48.30% combined)
• Any other player, including defensive and special teams scorers, +500 (16.67%)
• No touchdown +4000 (2.44%)

Those add up to about 126.8%. Strip the margin out proportionally and the +450 running back's fair chance is 18.18 / 1.268 = 14.3%, a fair price of about +597. The sportsbook pays +450. The no-vig calculator does the two- and three-way version of this step.

The anytime board is different, because several players can score in the same game, so its total is supposed to be far above 100%. The test is to compare it with the number of touchdowns you expect. Each player's chance of scoring at least once can never be higher than his expected number of touchdowns, so the whole board, added up, should not exceed the expected touchdown count. Suppose an illustrative anytime list implies 548.7% across 24 players, and you expect the game to produce about 4.5 touchdowns by those players. The board is at least 98.7 percentage points too high, which works out at a margin of about 22% on top of fair, before allowing for players who score twice. That is several times the margin on the spread, and it is why touchdown scorer prices need a larger edge in your own estimate before they are worth a bet.

Anytime touchdown scorers in same game parlays

Anytime scorers are a staple of same game parlays, and correlation decides what those combinations are worth. A running back scoring and his team winning tend to happen together. Two receivers from the same team both scoring is less likely in a low-scoring game. The sportsbook prices those links in, so the combined price is not simply the legs multiplied.

Take an illustrative team at -150 (1.667) and its lead running back at +120 (2.20) to score anytime. Multiplied, that is 3.67, or about +267. Now suppose your own estimates are a 58% chance of the team winning and a 44% chance of the back scoring, rising to 52% when the team wins. The chance of both is 0.58 × 0.52 = 30.2%, a fair price of 3.32 (about +232). Treated as independent, it would be 0.58 × 0.44 = 25.5%, a fair 3.92.

If the same game parlay is offered at +190 (2.90), your expected return is 0.302 × 2.90 = 0.875 per $1, a loss of about 12.5%. Each leg on its own costs less: the moneyline at 1.667 loses about 3.3% on your numbers and the anytime bet at 2.20 about 3.2%. Our guide to prop bets and bet builders explains correlation pricing in more depth, and the parlay and accumulator guide shows how margin compounds across legs.

Before you bet on a touchdown scorer

Most mistakes in this market come from misreading the rules rather than misjudging the player. Run through these before you confirm:

• Check which market you are in: anytime, first, last, 2+ or a team first scorer
• If you are backing a quarterback, remember that only his rushing or receiving touchdowns count
• Read how the book settles an inactive player and what counts as participation
• Wait for the inactive list if the player is questionable
• Convert the price to implied probability and compare it with your own estimate
• Compare the price at more than one licensed sportsbook, since prop prices vary more than main lines
• In a same game parlay, ask whether the legs are linked before trusting the combined price
• Stake a small, fixed share of your betting budget, as set out in our bankroll management guide

Sports betting is legal only in some US states, and college player props are restricted in some of them; our college football betting guide covers that market. Check the law where you are and bet only with a licensed operator. Touchdown props are quick, cheap-looking bets placed every week of the season, so keep track of what you spend, and if it stops being fun, our responsible gambling page has limit tools and help, including 1-800-GAMBLER. Unfamiliar terms are defined in the betting glossary.